by Michael R. Wenger, Senior Fellow
Beware of what you wish for is a line with which we are all familiar. It seems that there always are unintended consequences.
Some Democrats who are now rejoicing over the ascendancy of Rick Santorum in the race for the Republican Presidential nomination have cited that he’ll be much easier for President Obama to defeat than Mitt Romney, whose reputed “turn-around” experience in the private sector is viewed, in a weak economy, as the greatest challenge to a second Obama term.
I’m not so sure. Among the most important factors for voters in choosing a President are likeability and sincere commitment to principle. Ronald Reagan projected both qualities. Many Americans who had voted for John Kennedy in 1960 voted for Ronald Reagan 20 years later despite the fact that the philosophies of the two appeared to be at opposite ends of the political spectrum. I would argue that the voters didn’t change their minds on the issues so much as they were influenced by the fact that both candidates appeared likeable, optimistic, and sincere, while their opponents, Richard Nixon and Jimmy Carter, respectively, did not project any of these qualities. Bill Clinton in 1992 and George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004 also projected all three qualities. Their opponents, George H.W. Bush, Al Gore, and John Kerry, respectively, were viewed as wishy-washy, somewhat humorless, and not committed to any core principles. Similarly, in 2008 both President Obama and his family were personally engaging, and his message of hope and change resonated with the public.
Now consider Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum. Romney, according to all polls, is viewed as relatively unlikable (remember “I’m not concerned about the very poor”) and straight-laced, and he has built a well-deserved reputation for insincerity (remember “I can’t have an illegal immigrant working for me, because, for gosh sakes, I’m running for office”) and for changing his positions on core issues. Santorum, on the other hand, appears to be likable and relaxed, sort of like the guy next door, and he clearly is sincere about and committed to his core beliefs. I believe it matters less to voters what these beliefs are than that they feel they can trust him to take the same stand on issues in the White House as he does on the campaign trail. In these days when it seems that you can’t trust anything an elected official tells you, that’s a valuable attribute.
I believe that, barring an economic catastrophe or some other unforeseen disaster, President Obama will defeat either Romney or Santorum in the general election, perhaps easily. But Democrats should not rejoice at the prospect of facing Santorum rather than Romney.
